| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Zamaratskaia, Galia, et al.
(författare)
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Consumption of whole grain/bran rye instead of refined wheat decrease concentrations of TNF-R2, e-selectin, and endostatin in an exploratory study in men with prostate cancer
- 2020
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Ingår i: Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-1983 .- 0261-5614. ; 39:1, s. 159-165
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background & aims: Rye consumption has shown beneficial effects on prostate cancer tumors, as indicated by slower initial tumor growth in animal models and lowering of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in humans. This study evaluated the effects of whole grain/bran rye consumption on low-grade inflammation and endothelial function biomarkers in men with prostate cancer. Methods: Seventeen men with untreated, low-grade prostate cancer consumed 485 g rye whole grain and bran products (RP) per day or refined wheat products with added cellulose (WP) in a randomized crossover design. Fasting blood samples were taken before and after 2, 4, and 6 weeks of treatment. Results: Concentrations of tumor nuclear factor-receptor 2 (TNF-R2), e-selectin, and endostatin were significantly lower after consumption of the RP diet compared with WP (p < 0.05). Cathepsin S concentration was positively correlated to TNF-R2 and endostatin concentrations across all occasions. Strong correlations were consistently found between intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) and between interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA). No effect of intervention was found in 92 inflammation-related protein biomarkers measured in a proximity extension assay. Conclusions: RP diet lowered TNF-R2, e-selectin, and endostatin, compared with WP in men with prostate cancer. These effects were accompanied by a reduction in PSA.
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| 5. |
- Bergman, Lina, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Study for Improving Maternal Pregnancy And Child ouTcomes (IMPACT): a study protocol for a Swedish prospective multicentre cohort study
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055 .- 2044-6055. ; 10:9, s. e033851-e033851
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction First-trimester pregnancy risk evaluation facilitates individualised antenatal care, as well as application of preventive strategies for pre-eclampsia or birth of a small for gestational age infant. A range of early intervention strategies in pregnancies identified as high risk at the end of the first trimester has been shown to decrease the risk of preterm pre-eclampsia (<37 gestational weeks). The aim of this project is to create the Improving Maternal Pregnancy And Child ouTcomes (IMPACT) database; a nationwide database with individual patient data, including predictors recorded at the end of the first trimester and later pregnancy outcomes, to identify women at high risk of pre-eclampsia. A second aim is to link the IMPACT database to a biobank with first-trimester blood samples. Methods and analysis This is a Swedish prospective multicentre cohort study. Women are included between the 11th and 14th weeks of pregnancy. At inclusion, pre-identified predictors are retrieved by interviews and medical examinations. Blood samples are collected and stored in a biobank. Additional predictors and pregnancy outcomes are retrieved from the Swedish Pregnancy Register. Inclusion in the study began in November 2018 with a targeted sample size of 45 000 pregnancies by end of 2021. Creation of a new risk prediction model will then be developed, validated and implemented. The database and biobank will enable future research on prediction of various pregnancy-related complications. Ethics and dissemination Confidentiality aspects such as data encryption and storage comply with the General Data Protection Regulation and with ethical committee requirements. This study has been granted national ethical approval by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Uppsala 2018-231) and national biobank approval at Uppsala Biobank (18237 2 2018 231). Results from the current as well as future studies using information from the IMPACT database will be published in peer-reviewed journals.
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| 6. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(författare)
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Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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| 7. |
- Omar, Nor Adila Mhd, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term whole-grain rye and wheat consumption and their associations with selected biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial function, and cardiovascular disease
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0954-3007 .- 1476-5640. ; 75:1, s. 123-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background/objectives Whole-grain (WG) intake has been associated with a lowered risk of developing type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers in epidemiological studies. Reduced subclinical inflammation could be one important mechanism behind such associations. This study investigated whether high long-term WG rye and wheat intakes were associated with lower concentrations of biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial function, and protein biomarkers associated with cardiovascular disease. Subjects/methods We assessed WG intake by food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and by measuring alkylresorcinols (ARs) in plasma and adipose tissue, respectively. Selected biomarkers in free-living 109 women and 149 men were analyzed from two clinical subcohort studies (Swedish Mammography Cohort-Clinical (SMC-C) and Cohort of Swedish Men-Clinical (COSM-C), respectively. Total WG rye and wheat (WGRnW) and the ratio of WG rye to WG rye and wheat (WGR/WGRnW) were estimated from FFQs. ARs were measured in plasma and adipose tissue by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and the biomarkers by ELISA. Results We found no consistent associations between WG intake assessed by different methods and the selected biomarkers. However, WGRnW intake was inversely associated with cathepsin S (P-trend < 0.05) and total AR and C17:0/C21:0 in plasma were inversely associated with the endostatin concentration (P-trend < 0.05) adjusted for BMI, age, and sex. Conclusion The results give limited support to the hypothesis that a high WG wheat and rye intake is associated with lower concentrations of common biomarkers of inflammation and CVD that have previously been reported inversely associated with WG intake or an overall healthy lifestyle.
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| 8. |
- Ognissanti, Damiano, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating Analytical Errors of Glomerular Filtration Rate Measurement
- 2022
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Ingår i: Clinical Chemistry. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0009-9147 .- 1530-8561. ; 68:9, s. 1211-1218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Few studies are available on how to optimize time points for sampling and how to estimate effects of analytical uncertainty when glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is calculated. Methods We explored the underlying regression mathematics of how analytical variation of a kidney filtration marker affects 1-compartment, slope-and-intercept GFR calculations, using 2 or 3 time points following a bolus injection, and used this to examine the results from 731 routine 3-point iohexol plasma clearance measurements. Results GFR calculations inflated analytical uncertainty if the time points were taken too late after the bolus injection and too close after each other. The uncertainty in GFR calculation was, however, the same as the analytical uncertainty if optimal time points were used. The middle of the 3 samples was of little value. The first sample should be taken as early as possible after the distribution phase. Sampling before the patient specific half-life of the kidney filtration marker resulted in an exponential error inflation whereas no error inflation was seen when sampling occurred later than 2 half-lives. Theoretical GFR uncertainty could be lowered 2.6-fold if individually optimized time points for sampling had been used in our 731 clearance measurements. Using Taylor expansions to approximate the moments of transformed random variables, the uncertainty of an individual GFR measurement could be calculated in a simple enough way to be applicable by laboratory software. Conclusions We provide a theoretical foundation to select patient-optimal time points that may both limit errors and allow calculation of GFR uncertainty.
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| 9. |
- Karlsson, Mikael, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Surface properties of recycled titanium oxide recovered from paint waste
- 2018
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Ingår i: Progress in organic coatings. - : Elsevier BV. - 0300-9440 .- 1873-331X. ; 125, s. 279-286
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aluminium oxide coated rutile pigment was extracted from a paint matrix by means of a thermal recycling process. The objective was to investigate the effect of the recycling process on the surface properties of the pigment. The pigment was analysed using powder x-ray diffraction (XRD), surface area measurements (BET), laser diffraction for particle size analysis and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) before and after the recycling process. Investigations on the zeta potential and the surface charge were performed as well. It was concluded that the rutile crystalline core and the aluminium oxide coating of the pigment were still intact after the recycling process. The particle size distribution of the recycled pigment was slightly broader compared to the virgin pigment. The measured magnitude in zeta potential of the recycled pigment was lower than for the virgin pigment. This difference is thought to be caused by alteration in the surface hydroxyl concentration. Surface charge titrations showed differences between the virgin and the recycled pigment at alkaline pH and at low salt concentrations.
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| 10. |
- Zhao, QX, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of growth temperature and post-growth thermal annealing on carrier localization and deep level emissions in GaNAs/GaAs quantum well structures
- 2005
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Ingår i: Applied Physics Letters. - : American Institute of Physics. - 0003-6951 .- 1077-3118. ; 86:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report results from investigation of the optical properties of GaNAs/GaAs quantum well structures. The structures were grown by molecular-beam epitaxy at different temperatures, and subsequently postgrowth thermal treatments at different temperature were performed. The results show that the carrier localization is smaller in a structure grown at a temperature of 580 degrees C in comparison with a structure grown at 450 degrees C. Both structures also show a broaden deep level emission band. Furthermore, the deep level emission band and the carrier localization effect can be removed by thermal annealing at 650 degrees C in the structure grown at 450 degrees C. The structure quality and radiative recombination efficiency are significantly improved after annealing. However, annealing under the same condition has a negligible effect on the structure grown at 580 degrees C. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.
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